Who's in, who's out? The 'coalition of the willing' that could secure peace in Ukraine

A "coalition of the willing" could provide boots on the ground in Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire. 

The phrase was a central theme of Sir Keir Starmer's speech after European leaders gathered in London for crucial talks about Ukraine's future.

Led by the UK and France, the initiative could see troops from a number of European and NATO countries deployed to Ukraine as peacekeepers in order to deter Vladimir Putin from rearming and attacking again in the future.

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Sir Keir said Europe "must do the heavy lifting" on defence and indicated several countries had expressed interest in being part of the coalition.

So who's in, who's out - and what's behind these latest buzzwords?

What is a coalition of the willing?

The prime minister has said the UK, France and Ukraine will work together on a peace deal that could be presented to the US.

The countries committed to working together on this deal would form a "coalition of the willing".

Countries in the coalition could end up sending soldiers to act as peacekeepers in Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire.

Military analyst Michael Clarke said: "It has to be a coalition of the willing because you have at least two NATO members - Slovakia and Hungary - who are vetoing anything that Putin would not like... it's the same with the EU."

This approach would allow NATO members to act in a group but not under the NATO umbrella, avoiding vetoes from member states who don't approve or don't wish to be involved.

Sir Keir's choice of the term "coalition of the willing" is also interesting. It's perhaps intended to remind an American audience of a previous use of the same phrase: when the UK, Poland and other countries joined the US invasion of Iraq.

Russia has so far rejected the idea of any NATO or European peacekeeping force in Ukraine.

Who's in?

Sir Keir is being "quite coy about who the willing are", Prof Clarke said.

The initiative is being led by the UK and France, so it seems a safe bet that both countries would be involved in the coalition.

Both have powerful militaries and the two nations are also the only countries in Europe with nuclear weapons.

"The important thing is that Britain and France are going to lead it because they are the two most important military powers in Europe," Prof Clarke told Sky News.

It is notable that France's President Emmanuel Macron originally raised the possibility of French troops in Ukraine last year, when he refused to rule it out.

The Baltic states - Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia - are also likely to be involved, along with Finland, Prof Clarke says. All four countries are in NATO and share borders with Russia.

Italy could be involved too, Prof Clarke said, though Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has clashed with Mr Macron over the idea last week.

Not in Europe but a NATO member, Canada seems another potential contributor to the coalition of the willing.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, when asked about a potential deployment of troops as part of a peacekeeping force, said yesterday: "Canada has looked at the ways it can best help and as I've said a few days ago, everything's on the table."

Who's out?

Prof Clarke said Poland, Spain and Germany are not expected to send troops as peacekeepers, for different reasons.

Poland has one of the strongest militaries in Europe and aims to spend 4.7% of its GDP on defence this year, well above the NATO target.

But it also has a long border with Ukraine and Belarus and is concerned about its own security.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk last month said: "We do not plan to send Polish soldiers to the territory of Ukraine."

"We will... give logistical and political support to the countries that will possibly want to provide such guarantees in the future, such physical guarantees."

Spain's foreign minister Jose Manuel Albares said last month that it was "too early at the moment to talk about deploying troops in Ukraine", in remarks quoted by AFP.

He added: "There is no peace at the moment, and the effort has to be to achieve it as soon as possible."

Spain's government has faced a number of crises at home and spends around 1.28% of GDP on defence, well below the NATO 2% target.

As the biggest economy in Europe, Germany is a crucial part of any united response to the Ukraine war.

But a new government has not yet been formed after last month's elections.

Outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz has previously ruled out sending German troops to Ukraine as peacekeepers.

While his government has provided substantial support to Ukraine since the full-scale invasion, he has been seen by some as hesitant - for example resisting calls to send the vaunted Taurus missiles to Kyiv.

Friedrich Merz, who is expected to replace him as chancellor once the new government is in place, has taken a harder line, including on pledging Taurus missiles, so it remains to be seen if his attitude on deploying troops will also deviate from his predecessor.

What about America?

The elephant in the room is the biggest contributor to NATO: the US.

For example, of the 5,015 fighter and fighter ground-attack aircraft in NATO, 2,951 of them are from the US, and a further 1,108 are US-made, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies thinktank.

And America's military is not just the largest in the world, but its ability to support troops in the field in terms of logistics is very hard to replace.

The coalition of the willing initiative seems designed to show President Donald Trump that Europe is serious about shouldering the defence burden and taking on more responsibility for the defence of Ukraine.

It should be pointed out that while the US is the single biggest donor to Kyiv, Europe as a whole has pledged more, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy thinktank.

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The hope seems to be that the coalition of the willing initiative would persuade the US as the world's most powerful military to pledge support as a backstop, to underwrite the peace deal.

It's unclear so far what Washington's response will be, particularly after the fiery recent meeting between Mr Trump, vice president JD Vance and Mr Zelenskyy.

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