What we can expect from Donald Trump's second term as US president

Asked last week if "shock and awe" would be a good way to describe how the next few days and weeks might feel, Donald Trump's former chief strategist Steve Bannon offered a different analogy, predicting "days of thunder".

The second term of Donald Trump will be like no other in modern history because he is like no other president.

Not only is he different in character, style, priorities, and execution but he has done it all before and with a useful gap since.

His four-year interregnum has allowed him to learn from his mistakes and he has had the time to build a team of chosen ones who have been playing a long game, preparing for this moment to, as his slogan puts it, "make America great again".

Many months ago I had lunch with a senior Trump advisor and we discussed what his second term might look like.

Back then, before Joe Biden had stepped down and before two assassination attempts against him, his victory wasn't as likely as it later turned out to be.

The advisor projected forward to the day which has now arrived - Inauguration Day.

Mr Trump, he said, would sign a raft of executive orders there and then, on the day, maybe even a pile of them on the balcony of the Capitol building.

It would be the clearest of signals that everything is changing; the people would vote for change and with the sweep of the presidential Sharpie pen, change would happen.

Well, the day is upon us. The weather has shifted all the plans but has, maybe, made the choreography of the moment all the more striking.

In a change to convention, Mr Trump will join a crowd of 20,000 inside the Capital One sports arena after the inauguration ceremony. Is it the perfect venue to begin to sign the executive orders?

On day one after his first inauguration in January 2017, Mr Trump signed just one presidential order. This time his team have indicated he could sign as many as 100.

Not all will be signed on day one but it is expected that many will be in a blitz designed to assert authority and to overwhelm flabbergasted critics.

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Speaking earlier this month, a spokesperson for Mr Trump said: "President-elect Donald Trump is preparing more than 100 executive orders starting day one of the new White House, in what amounts to a shock and awe campaign on border security, deportations and a rush of other policy priorities."

His incoming press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, said: "He will use the power of his pen to deliver on many of the promises he made to the American people on the campaign trail… the American people are going to be pleased with what they see from President Trump within mere minutes of his return to the Oval Office."

So what can we expect?

Immigration

Changes to America's immigration policies are likely to be profound and controversial.

"Mass deportations" have been promised repeatedly and Mr Trump has filled his inner circle with advisors who are vehemently anti-immigration.

"On my first day back at the White House, I'll terminate every open borders policy of the Biden administration and begin the largest deportation operation in American history," Mr Trump said at one of his pre-election campaign rallies last year.

Undocumented migrants will be the focus. There are an estimated 11 million people who fall into this category in the US at the moment.

It has been suggested that the military could be used to help round up undocumented migrants in cities across the country. This will include immigrants who have been in the country for many years waiting for the chance to change their immigration status.

Many of the undocumented migrants will have family members born here who are therefore US citizens.

Mr Trump has also proposed banning birthright citizenship - an American right enshrined in the 14th Amendment of the US Constitution.

It's not clear yet how wide-reaching these policies could be or how enforceable they all are. Will the focus be on migrants known to have committed crimes? Or will the net be wider?

"On day one, I will launch the largest deportation programme in American history to get the criminals out," Mr Trump said in October. "I will rescue every city and town that has been invaded and conquered, and we will put these vicious and bloodthirsty criminals in jail, then kick them the hell out of our country as fast as possible."

His immigration plans are likely to face significant legal challenges. But expect Mr Trump's White House to want to make visually impactful actions early on to show it means business.

Energy

"Drill, baby, drill" was a phase rolled out to roars at Donald Trump's campaign rallies. And, true to his word, Mr Trump is expected to instruct federal agencies to begin unwinding President Biden's limits on drilling offshore and on federal land.

Beyond that, he is expected to push for a rollback of vehicle exhaust emission rules which he has described as an "EV (electric vehicle) mandate" and to resume approvals for plants that export US natural gas.

Expect, too, that he will once again withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement. President Biden rejoined the agreement after Mr Trump pulled out during his first term.

It all amounts to what Mr Trump has termed America's "energy dominance".

January 6 pardons

On many occasions during the election campaign, Mr Trump has said he would pardon people convicted for their role in the January 6 2021 attack on the US Capitol - an attempt to prevent the 2020 election from being ratified.

In December, he told Time Magazine: "I'll be looking at J6 early on, maybe the first nine minutes."

Trade and tariffs

This is an issue that's causing significant angst globally and with good reason. It's a central reason why world leaders are treading so carefully in their comments about the new president.

Weeks after his election, Mr Trump promised he would sign an executive order to implement a 25% tariff on products imported from Mexico and Canada, two of America's biggest trading partners.

Previous pledges by Mr Trump include 10% tariffs across the board, but his November comments about Mexico and Canada went further. During his campaign, Trump said tariff was "the most beautiful word in the entire dictionary of words".

It's thought he will use the tariffs in part as a bargaining tool in order to make other countries dance to his tune.

"On January 20th, as one of my many first executive orders, I will sign all necessary documents to charge Mexico and Canada a 25% tariff on ALL products coming into the United States," he said in November.

"This tariff will remain in effect until such time as drugs, in particular Fentanyl and all illegal aliens stop this invasion of our country! Both Mexico and Canada have the absolute right and power to easily solve this long-simmering problem. We hereby demand that they use this power, and until such time that they do, it is time for them to pay a very big price!"

The prospect of massive tariffs on goods coming into America could upend the global economy and supply chains. It's also likely to push up prices in America, undermining Mr Trump's pledge to reduce costs for everyday Americans. So watch for the extent to which rhetoric meets reality here.

A war on woke

At campaign rallies Mr Trump repeatedly touted bringing an end to the so-called "woke ideology" in America.

Education in schools will be a focus with the federal Department for Education in the firing line.

Mr Trump has said he would cut federal funding for schools that are "pushing critical race theory, transgender insanity and other inappropriate racial, sexual or political content onto the lives of our children".

He is also expected to undo the Biden administration's Title IX protections that allowed trans students to use the school bathrooms that align with their gender identities.

Ukraine

While he's revised his pledge to "end the war in 24 hours", Mr Trump is still promising to bring the Ukraine conflict to an end swiftly. The unanswered question is how, and the extent to which it would benefit Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Last year, incoming vice president JD Vance outlined the contours of the plan. "What it probably looks like is the current line of demarcation between Russia and Ukraine, that becomes like a demilitarised zone," Mr Vance told the Shawn Ryan podcast.

Mr Trump's foreign policy objective is quick wins. While that may yield results in his presidential term, in the longer term, what message would it send to America's adversaries? Mr Putin has no term limit on his presidency and could do with a pause in fighting to regroup and rearm.

Rhetoric and reality?

This is by no means an exhaustive list of Mr Trump's campaign pledges that delivered him back to the White House.

The question is the extent to which his rhetoric is matched by action. After all, it is on his actions, not the rhetoric, that he will be judged.

Of the people who pushed Donald Trump over the line in November, a proportion did so precisely because they agreed with every one of his policies no matter how controversial - they want wholesale overhaul.

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However many others voted for him because they like his style (and were fed up with the other side) but they don't really believe he will follow through on the most extreme policies.

"He's not actually going to do that" is a sentiment I heard pretty often on the campaign trail.

We will find out in the hours, days, months, and four years ahead how reality matches rhetoric and what these "days of thunder" will look like.

Of one thing, we can be pretty certain. We are entering a profoundly consequential time.

(c) Sky News 2025: What we can expect from Donald Trump's second term as US president